The analogy between biological evolution and social
evolution is very interesting. Normally, I’m not fond of strict ecological
analogies. The human social system differs so much from natural systems that
any analogy hardly does one or the other justice. Normally, huge
simplifications are made and rarely something genuine comes out. However, the
analogy between evolution of technologies and biological evolution seems very
applicable. Variation, transmission and selective pressure are mechanisms that
drive both sides.
As a population of firms I
will discuss the fuel industry briefly. Here, the production of ethanol as a
fuel is an interesting characteristic which changed in intensity quite often in
different places. Generally, ethanol has been a viable fuel for already a long
time. The first ever commercial car, the Ford Model T could run on gasoline,
kerosene and ethanol as well (Addison, Keith). However, it is only in the
recent decade that ethanol is starting to become more widely spread throughout
the world as a viable alternative to gasoline. This is increasingly apparent in
Brazil. Applying social evolution to this case, we can formulate a clear
question. What were the mechanisms (variation, retention/transmission and
selection) which drove ethanol production and consumption in Brazil?
In figure 1 you can see the
global ethanol production during the past 40 years. The production in Brazil
increased rapidly begin eighties but stabilized and fluctuated as well in the
following years. Eventually, since 2000 there is a rise again. In the US,
despite having the option for ethanol as fuel for a long time, some selection
mechanisms favored against ethanol and, as we know, for gasoline. Since 2000,
other mechanisms became active which not only motivated the two largest ethanol
producers, Brazil and the US, to produce more but also a variety of other
countries and regions in the world.
Figure 1 World production of ethanol (source: Global Green Agriculture).
In figure 2, the trend of
oil production in the US is shown. It is clear that gasoline from oil was the
favored fuel and production steadily increased from 85’ onwards.
Figure 2 Global oil production and price (source:
EIA)
The story of ethanol
production in Brazil is pretty straightforward. Before 1970 the Brazilian
government already showed interest in ethanol as a fuel due to unstable oil
prices. Variation of fuels was made, there was some knowhow and basic
production created around ethanol. However, ethanol never broke through and all
cars were petrol fueled. It is safe to say that even though the price stability
of ethanol was better, the retention of the car industry to produce gasoline
powered cars made ethanol unviable. After the oil crisis in 1973, the
government made it obligatory to use ethanol blends with gasoline. This
ProÁlcool program (1975 to 1985) stimulated the development of ethanol as a
fuel both in production and in usage. Here it is obvious that selection
pressure pushed ethanol in the forefront. In figure 3, there is a definite rise
in ethanol powered car sales in the beginning of the eighties. However, due to
the economic crises Brazil went through in the late eighties, subsidies for
ethanol production were cut. Gasoline won once again as a cheaper resource and
this is visible in figure 3.
Figure 3 Car sales per fuel type in Brazil (source:
ANFAVEA, 2014).
In 1990 the economy
somewhat stabilized and from 1999 onwards, the government didn’t regulate the
ethanol industry anymore. Entering the free market the ethanol fuel steadily
rose form 2000 onwards. Together with the sales of flex fuel cars (figure 3)
ethanol became competitive to gasoline. Figure 4 gives a nice overview once
again.
Figure 4 Average ethanol content in gasoline in
Brazil (source: Nogueira, 2008)
References
